Okun ta Law. Okun ta coefficient: definition, dabara

Domin bincike na da tattalin arziki halin da ake ciki sau da yawa amfani Okun ta dokar. Rabo, wanda aka kaddamar da masanin kimiyyar, ya bayyana dangantaka tsakanin rashin aikin yi da kuma ci gaba. Yana da aka bude a kan tushen da empirical data a 1962, da kimiyya, da masana a wanda girmamawa da kuma aka mai suna. Statistics nuna cewa wani karuwa a rashin aikin yi da 1% take kaiwa zuwa wani karu a ainihin GDP daga m 2%. Duk da haka, wannan rabo ne ba m. Yana iya bambanta dangane da jihar da kuma lokacin da zamani. A rabo tsakanin kwata canje-canje a cikin yawan marasa aikin yi da kuma real GDP - wannan shi ne Okun ta Law. Da dabara, ya kamata a lura, an har yanzu soki. Kuma tambayar da amfani don bayyana kasuwar yanayi.

Okun ta Law

Factor da dokokinka baya kuma ya bayyana a sakamakon ilimin kididdiga data aiki, da cewa shi ne, empirical lura. Ya dogara ne ba sa asali ka'idar, to, wanda aka gwada a yi. Arthur Melvin Ouken gan juna, karatu da lissafi na Amurka. Yana yana da kimanin. Wannan shi ne saboda cewa da} asashensu da aka rinjayi mutane da yawa dalilai, ba kawai da yawan marasa aikin yi. Duk da haka, irin wannan Saukake bincike da dangantakar dake tsakanin macroeconomic yi ne wani lokacin kuma da amfani kamar yadda bincike ya nuna Okun. Coefficient outputted masana kimiyya nuni inversely na gwargwado dogara tsakanin fitarwa da kuma rashin aikin yi. Ouken yi imani da cewa karuwa a cikin} asashensu ta 2% saboda wadannan canjawa:

• sauke a matakin na cyclical rashin aikin yi da 1%.
• kara da aikin yi na 0.5%.
• kara yawan aiki hours ga kowane ma'aikacin zuwa 0.5%.
• yawan aiki girma na 1%.

Saboda haka, rage matakin na cyclic Okun rashin aikin yi da 0.1%, za mu iya sa ran wata karuwa a real GDP 0.2%. Duk da haka, wannan rabo dabam domin kasashe daban-daban da kuma lokaci lokaci. Dogara da aka gwada a yi duka biyu GDP da GNP. Martin kiyasta Prachovni, da dakushe samar da 3% saboda wani karu a rashin aikin yi da 1%. Duk da haka, ya yi imanin cewa, wannan shi ne kawai wani kai tsaye ba dangantaka. A cewar Prachovni a kan samar da rinjayar babu mafi rashin aikin yi, da kuma sauran dalilai kamar damar yin amfani da yawan aiki hours. Saboda haka dole su da su kãfirta su. Prachovni lasafta cewa rage rashin aikin yi da 1% take kaiwa zuwa wani karuwa GDP kawai 0.7%. The dogara zama weaker a kan lokaci. A shekarar 2005, wani bincike na kwanan nan statistics gudanar Endryu Habila da kuma Ben Bernanke. Su kiyasta cewa karuwa a rashin aikin yi da 1% take kaiwa zuwa wani digo a samar da 2%.

dalilai

Amma me ya sa GDP girma rates fi yawan canji a cikin yawan marasa aikin yi? Yana yiwuwa a bayar da dama bayani:

• A mataki na da multiplier sakamako. A mafi mutane aiki, da girma da bukatar dukiya. Saboda haka, samar da zai iya girma a sauri taki fiye da aikin yi da matakin.
• Ajizanci statistics. M persons iya kawai daina neman aiki. Idan wannan ya faru, za su bace daga "radar" na ilimin kididdiga hukumomin.
• Sa'an nan, a zahiri-aiki mutane za su iya fara aiki kasa. A statistics, shi ne kusan ba bayyane. Duk da haka, wannan halin da ake ciki shi ne wani gagarumin tasiri a kan samar da abinci. Saboda haka, da wannan yawan ma'aikata, za mu iya zahiri samun daban-daban Manuniya} asashensu.
• A karu a aiki yawan aiki. Wannan na iya zama saboda ba kawai ga tabarbarewar da kungiyar, amma kuma tare da an wuce kima yawan ma'aikata.

Okun ta Dokar: da dabara

Mun gabatar da wadannan tsarin rubutu:

• Y - da real fitarwa.
• Y '- m} asashensu.
• u - real rashin aikin yi.
• u '- da na halitta matakin na baya adadi.
• c - Okun coefficient.

Shan la'akari sama tsarin rubutu, wanda zai iya samu da wadannan dabara: (Y '- Y) / Y' = wani * (u - u ').

A Amurka, tun shekarar 1955, da karshen adadi ne kullum ya 2 ko 3, kamar yadda aka nuna ta da muka ambata a sama empirical karatu. Duk da haka, wannan version of Okun ta dokar da aka wuya amfani saboda m matakan da rashin aikin yi da kuma} asashensu ne quite wuya a kimanta. Akwai wani version na dabara.

Yadda yin lissafi GDP

Don lissafi da kudi na GDP girma, za mu gabatar da wadannan notations:

• Y - da ainihin adadin da batun.
• Δu - canji a cikin ainihin matakin da rashin aikin yi a kwatanta da na baya shekara.
• C - Okun coefficient.
• ΔY - canza ainihin fitarwa idan aka kwatanta da na baya shekara.
• K - da talakawan shekara-shekara samarwa girma a cike aiki.

Amfani da tsarin rubutu na data iya samu wadannan lissafi: ΔY / Y = k - c * Δu.

Domin na zamani lokaci a tarihin Amurka coefficient C ne daidai da 2 da kuma K - 3%. Saboda haka, an lissafi: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

da yin amfani da

Sanin yadda za a lissafta da Okun coefficient, sau da yawa yana taimaka a gina trends. Sau da yawa, duk da haka, sakamakon yawan ba ma m. Wannan shi ne saboda da coefficient na bambancin} asashe da kuma lokaci lokaci. Saboda haka, dole ne mu yi la'akari da sakamakon Hasashen na GDP girma da samar da ayyukan yi tare da wasu mataki na shakka. Bugu da ƙari, gajere trends ne mafi m. Wannan shi ne saboda gaskiyar cewa a wani kudi na hali canje-canje iya shafar.

a yi

Zaton cewa yawan marasa aikin yi ne 10%, da kuma ainihin} asashensu - milliardov 7500 monetary raka'a.
Muna bukatar mu sami adadin GDP da za a iya sanya idan matakin na rashin aikin yi daidai da na halitta nuna alama (6%). Wannan matsala ne sauƙin warware ta yin amfani da Okun ta dokar. Rabo ya nuna cewa ainihin matakin wuce haddi kan halitta rashin aikin yi da 1% take kaiwa zuwa wani asarar 2% na GDP. Saboda haka da farko muna bukatar mu sami bambanci tsakanin 10% da kuma 6%. Saboda haka, bambancin da ke tsakanin ainihin da na halitta yawan marasa aikin yi ne 4%. Bayan da cewa mai sauki ne ga fahimci cewa GDP a cikin matsalar bayan ta m darajar da 8%. Yanzu mun dauki ainihin} asashensu 100%. Bugu da ari, shi za a iya ƙarasa da cewa 108% na real GDP na 7500 * 1.08 = 8.1 tiriliyan kudin. Ya kamata a fahimci cewa wannan misali ne kawai misali na cikin shakka daga cikin tattalin arziki. A gaskiya, da halin da ake ciki na iya zama mabanbanta. Saboda haka, amfani da Okun ta dokar ne kawai dace da gajere kiyasin inda babu bukatar for musamman madaidaici ma'aunai.