Girmancin na Yuro (2014) a Rasha

A lokacin farko 'yan watanni na 2014 da ruble depreciated kan manyan duniya ago, ciki har da Yuro. Ta yaya za a guda Turai kudin dangane da Rasha a nan gaba? Za mu iya sa ran cewa Yuro zai ci gaba da girma? A duk ya dogara a kan al'amurra da dama, tattalin arziki da siyasa yanayi.

Kayyadewa da kuma corridor

Abin da muka gani a kan allon nuni da musayar maki - sakamakon kudin ciniki, da aka gudanar tare da sa hannu na Central Bank. The darajar nuna lambobin - mai hade da tasiri na babban adadin kudi sunadaran, ciki har da wadanda cewa ana amfani da tattalin arzikin duniya cibiyoyin, ciki har da Babban Bankin. Daya daga cikin manyan kayan tasiri Rasha banki a kasuwa - shi ne halatta ciniki band. Idan ruble muhimmanci underestimated ko overestimated, Babban Bankin fara sayen ko sayar da kudi don ci gaba da ake bukata dabi'u. Faruwa kudin shiga tsakani don hana ma da karfi depreciation na ruble.

Bayan ta girma ya wuce $ miliyan 350, a corridor cikin sãsanninta canja zuwa sama da 5 aninai. Irin ayyuka na Central Bank - sananniyar abu ga tattalin arzikin, amma a cikin watannin farko na shekarar 2014 wadannan ƙungiyoyi sun yawanci unilateral. Exchange kudi band aka canja, sigina mai kwari weakening na ruble. A Figures ne kaifin: a kwatanta da dabi'u na bara da kudi na Rasha "itace" dangane da manyan duniya ago, fadi da kashi 10. Bayyanannu da hasashen da na Yuro kuma dollar girma da aka gani.

Factor ci gaban tattalin arziki

A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, da ruble, kamar yadda mai mulkin, motsi sama da kasa da Sikeli kudin kusan a kai tsaye hulda da farashin mai. Yanzu, duk da haka, shi ya dogara da kudi na sauran macroeconomic Manuniya. Da farko, shi ne kamar yadda irin wannan ci gaban. Ko da yake da farashin ganga na mai karko a $ 100 da kuma karin, Rasha ta GDP ya karu sosai a hankali. Forecast for 2014 - wata karuwa da game da 1.5 bisa dari, wanda shi ne m fiye da duniya talakawan.

Low rates zai babu makawa tasiri a kan ruble musayar kudi ga manyan ago. girma daga cikin Yuro a 2014 a kan Rasha banknotes, ta haka, za a iya har yanzu zama a matsayin babban matsayin kashi 10. Duk da haka, da m darajar da ruble kan Yuro to talakawa Rasha jama'a, bisa ga masana, shi ne low: farashin mafi kayayyaki da aka bayyana a cikin kasa da kudin. A bambanci, misali, daga cikin 90 na, a lokacin da farashin tags a mai yawa Stores kasance a "y. e. ". Akwai yiwuwar kawai Yunƙurin a farashin shigo da kaya, amma ba fiye da kashi 10 cikin dari na wannan.

Hukumomi kasance kaffa

A jihar wakilta ma'aikatar kudi a lokaci guda ba ya sa ran duk wani matsaloli daga alama raguwa a farashin da ruble a waje musayar kasuwa a shekarar 2014. A cewar jami'an wannan sashen, ga mai tsanani musayar kudi da hawa da sauka ba musamman tattalin arziki filaye, kuma ta yiwu dabi'u, ko ta wani hanya, zai kasance a cikin corridor kafa ta Central Bank. Duk da haka, ma'aikatar kudi don kauce wa magana game da al'amurra na baya Trend: ba za su zamanto cikin Yuro da dollar, kuma da tabbatarwa daga cikin ruble.

Wasu masana sun yi imanin cewa Rasha kudin kasuwar tsiwirwirinsu kwanciyar hankali a 'yan shekarun nan. A wannan batun, Babban Bankin a shekarar 2015 da tsare-tsaren su suyi watsi da sa ido na ruble da canzawa zuwa kumbura niyya - da karbuwa daga aiki don shirya tattalin arzikin Figures na girma mabukaci farashin. Kusan, wannan yana nufin barin tafi na kasa kudin a "free iyo", amma ba tabbatacce yayi na 'yan shekarun nan da karfi vibrations faruwa, bisa ga tsammanin da financiers, shi bai kamata ba.

Business m

Ya bambanta da jin zuciya rinjaye a jihar cibiyoyin, masu zaman kansu da hukumomi, musamman bankuna fi son ba ya zama haka kaffa. A cewar wasu masana, ba alaka da ma'aikatar kudi na Tsarin, da weakening na ruble - shi ne mai tsari sabon abu. Yana fara ba kawai cewa, amma a 'yan watannin da suka wuce. Farashin mai halin da ake ciki da ba kai tsaye sakamako a kan ruble. Yana da wani abu kuma: fadowa bukatar a kasa ago na kasashe masu tasowa, da kuma, a maimakon haka, akwai wata karuwa a shahararsa na dollar, Yuro.

A Rasha, ta hanyar, mafi sassa na tattalin arzikin za a iya dangana ga tsarin da kasar ne da alama irin. Wannan Trend - duniya da nasaba da duniya rikicin, bayan da tattalin arzikinsu ba tasowa sosai rayayye. Bugu da kari, da halin da ake ciki da wahala da cewa masu zuba jari da zarar kasuwa fara "tafi", sa'an nan kuma sayar rubles a musayar. A cikin kudi na kasa kudin na Rasha, ta haka, rinjayar da m factor. Masu zuba jari ga al'ada dauke m ruble, da kuma kashe a cikinta - m.

Amma mafi alheri ka ajiye a rubles

Duk da mummunan halin a kudin kasuwar masana ba da shawara Russia yi tanadi a cikin daloli da kuma Tarayyar Turai. Da cewa mu bankunan har yanzu bayar da high amfani rates a kan ruble adibas - game da 10% annum. A game da kasashen waje ago irin dabi'u da dogon daina wanzuwa. Idan, misali, zuwa bari da ruble depreciate ko 10%, sa'an nan da zuba jari ba zai rasa wani abu. A dangane da halin yanzu kumbura Manuniya irin wannan ajiya dã a wani hali m embodiment kudi ajiya.

A kashi na tanadi adadin to wannan dole rasa a cikin hira. Duk da haka, wannan "lissafi" ba quite gaskiya, idan wani mutum da yake faruwa je zuwa rayuwa a kasashen waje, ko kuma sami wani albashi, dangane da waje musayar kudi. Ganin cewa a cikin ci gaban zai zama Yuro, 2014 th shekara alama quite m ga jari na kudi a cikin wannan kudin ga manufar motsi kasashen waje.

The hali - by kalmar na Turawa

Idan musayar kudi ya dogara da kasa da kula da manufofin - Babban Bankin Rasha, Yunƙurin na Yuro, bi da bi, da aka fi mayar da m da Turai Babban Bankin aiki. Yanzu kudi ma'aikata fi son gwada da taushi tsarin kula da tsari na kasuwa da kuma ba kõma zuwa sabon abu hanyoyin da tasiri a kan Yuro. Wannan siyasa na taimaka wa wasu kyautata a cikin Sashin Turai tattalin arzikin a farkon 2014. Idan wannan Trend ya ci gaba, da kudi da guda kudin da sauran duniya banknotes da wani babban yiwuwa zai kara.

Game da dangi matsayi na Yuro kuma ruble, akwai za su taka rawar da factor na Amurka dollar. A hanya na Rasha kudin dogara a kan wasu biyu, a halin yanzu a duniya muhimmanci. Abu ne mai wuya cewa Yuro kan dollar a 2014 zai ƙwarai karkacewa daga darajar 1.4 maki (da karfi vibrations ba zai ba da damar gudãnar da Central Bank). Saboda haka, idan US kudin zai isa, misali, 36 rubles, farashin Turai bai wuce 50.

kintace

Wasu masana sa ran da ruble karfafa banki kasuwar da karshen 2014, da kuma saboda 'yan ƙasa mafi alhẽri ba don samun shiga a cikin jita-jitar da buying up daloli da kuma Tarayyar Turai. Dalilin wannan fili fata - a cikin Central Bank ta siyasa. The korau Trend cewa ya tara, a 2013, Saboda haka dole ne canza shugabanci a tsakiyar shekara ta 2014. Daga cikin gaba-neman lambobin - 33 rubles da dollar, 43.5 - da Yuro. Wannan ne ma saboda macroeconomic dalilai: a cikin raya ƙasashe na EU ana sa ran kara da matakin na bukatar dukiya kerarre a Rasha, kazalika da karuwa a bukatar man fetur. Duk da haka, da tambayar ko za a yi wani pronounced Yunƙurin a cikin Yuro, kintace a 2014 an ba ya canzawa.

Akwai kuma wani version cewa a halin yanzu tattalin arziki halin da ake ciki babu bukatar rage darajar kuɗi da ruble (as faru, misali, a 2008). Sa'an nan kuma akwai wani gagarumin raguwar GDP, rashin aikin yi ya tashi sharply, da kuma saboda ragewar darajar kuɗi da aka ceton ingirci domin da yawa sassa na Rasha tattalin arzikin (musamman don fitarwa-daidaitacce). Bugu da kari, masana sun yi imanin, a lokacin da babban bankin ya ciyar da ragewar darajar kuɗi na game da $ 200 biliyan, da kuma a yau shi zai zama mafi alhẽri aika da kudi samuwa ga sauran dalilai.

geopolitics

An sani cewa "kudi likes shiru". Saboda haka, wani yayi a cikin tattalin arzikin duniya, an daura wa aukuwa a fagen siyasa. A yau, cibiyar theme a duniya - wannan shi ne halin da ake ciki a Ukraine. Idan da tashin hankali a cikin dangantakar da ke tsakanin Rasha da Turai da kuma Amurka fada, kasar ago na jiran wani rollback da dabi'u na Janairu da kuma watan Fabrairu. Duk da haka, ko da a wannan yanayin, bã su fatan karfi ra'ayi na ruble da kasashen waje ago, tun da, baicin da factor na siyasa da ya rage wani babba tasiri na tattalin arziki trends iya karfafa da dollar da Yuro. 2014 A shekarar iya sun fi mayar da sanin da babban vectors na geopolitics a nan gaba.

Babban abu da cewa kasuwar da aka motsi

A mafi frustrating halin da ake ciki ga wani waje musayar kasuwa - shi ne m. Movement a kasuwa, ko yana cikin Yuro ko wani depreciation na ruble, ba da sigina wa masu zuba jari su yi wani abu, ya dauki wani mataki. Duk da haka, kamar yadda masana lura, don gina dogon lokaci kintace kan musayar rates - wani m aiki. Yana da matukar m ba tsammani da shugabanci, da yawa ya dogara da dalilai da mataki zuwa riga da wuya sosai. Yana da muhimmanci cewa kasuwa mahalarta da kuma jama'a su sami damar zuwa cikakken bayani game da tafiyar matakai abin da ke faruwa a cikin tattalin arzikin kasar.