A stochastic model na tattalin arziki. Deterministic da stochastic model

A stochastic model bayyana halin da ake ciki inda da rashin tabbas ne ba. A wasu kalmomin, da tsari ne halin da wasu mataki na randomness. The sosai siffa "stochastic" da aka samu daga kalmar Helenanci "zato." Saboda rashin tabbas ne a key alama na rayuwar yau da kullum, irin wannan model iya bayyana wani abu.

Duk da haka, duk lokacin da muka yi amfani da shi, zai samu daban-daban sakamakon. Saboda haka sau da yawa amfani deterministic model. Ko da yake ba su da matsayin kusa da real Jihar harkokin, amma ko da yaushe bayar da wannan sakamakon da zai iya sauƙaƙe fahimtar halin da ake ciki, ya rage wuya da shi, ta gabatar da wani hadadden ilmin lissafi lissafai.

key siffofin

Stochastic model ko da yaushe ya hada da daya ko fiye da bazuwar canji. Yana bukatar gani hakikanin rai a duk da manifestations. Ba kamar deterministic model, stochastic ba a yi nufin ya rage wuya da kuma rage zuwa sani dabi'u. Saboda haka, da rashin tabbas ne ta key fasalin. Stochastic model ne ya dace don bayyana wani abu, amma su duka raba da wadannan halaye:

• Duk wani stochastic model nuna duk al'amurran da matsalar, don nazarin da kafa.
• A qarshe na kowane daga cikin abubuwan da suka faru ne bai tabbata ba. Saboda haka, tsarin ya hada da yiwuwar. A daidaito na lissafi ya dogara da correctness na] aukacin sakamakon.
• Wadannan yiwuwa za a iya amfani da su hango ko hasashen ko bayyana da matakai da kansu.

Deterministic da stochastic model

Ga wasu, rayuwa shi ne jerin bazuwar events, ga wasu - wani tsari a cikin abin da hanyar shigar da sakamako. A gaskiya, shi ne halin da rashin tabbas, amma ba ko da yaushe, kuma a ko'ina. Saboda haka yana da wani lokacin wuya a sami sarari bambance-bambance tsakanin stochastic da deterministic model. A yiwuwa ne quite kayadadden nuna alama.

Alal misali, ka yi la'akari tossing tsabar kudin. A duban farko alama cewa da alama cewa da dama "wutsiyoyi", shi ne 50%. Saboda haka wajibi ne a yi amfani da deterministic model. Duk da haka, da gaskiya shi ne cewa da yawa ya dogara da dexterity na 'yan wasa da kuma cikakken daidaita tsabar kudi. Wannan yana nufin cewa kana bukatar ka yi amfani da wani stochastic model. Ko da yaushe suna da zabin cewa ba mu sani. A hakikanin rai, dalilin shi ne ko da yaushe wani sakamako na haddasawa, amma akwai kuma wani mataki na rashin tabbas. Da zabi tsakanin yin amfani da deterministic da stochastic model dogara a kan abin da muka kasance son ya yi hadaya - sauki analysis ko idon basira.

A hargitsi ka'idar

Kwanan nan, manufar abin da ake kira mai stochastic model, ya zama ma fi Heart. Wannan shi ne saboda ci gaban da ake kira hargitsi ka'idar. Yana bayyana a deterministic model cewa zai iya samar da daban-daban da sakamakon da kadan canji a farko sigogi. Wannan shi ne kama da gabatarwar da rashin tabbas a cikin asusun. Masana kimiyya da dama har ma yarda cewa wannan shi ne riga mai stochastic model.

Karin Breyer bayyana delicately duk ta amfani da poetic images. Ya rubuta: "A dutsen rafi, da duka zuciya, a smallpox annoba, tashin shafi na hayaki - duk wannan shi ne wani misali da wani tsauri sabon abu wanda, kamar yadda alama, wani lokacin halin da randomness. A gaskiya, duk da haka, irin wannan matakai ne ko da yaushe magana zuwa wasu domin, wanda masana kimiyya da kuma injiniyoyi suna kawai fara fahimta. Wannan ne da aka sani a matsayin deterministic hargitsi. " A sabon ka'idar sauti sosai plausible, don haka da yawa zamani masana kimiyya ne da magoya bayan. Duk da haka, shi ne har yanzu kadan ci gaba, da kuma shi ne quite wuya ga tambaya a cikin ilimin kididdiga lissafin. Saboda haka shi ne sau da yawa amfani stochastic ko deterministic model.

gini

Stochastic ilmin lissafi model fara da selection na na farko events sarari. Saboda haka a cikin statistics ake magana a kai a jerin yiwu sakamakon karatu tsari ko taron. Sa'an nan da bincike kayyade da yiwuwar kowane daga cikin na farko events. Wannan mafi yawa ana yi a kan tushen da wani takamaiman hanya.

Duk da haka, da yiwuwar ne har yanzu a wajen kayadadden siga. The bincike sa'an nan kayyade wadda events ne na girma ban sha'awa don warware matsalar. Bayan haka, ya kawai ya kira su yiwuwa.

misali

La'akari da tsari na gina wani mai sauqi qwarai stochastic model. Misali mu jefa kuri'a. Idan sakamakon shi ne "shida" ko "daya", mu riba ne goma daloli. A tsari na gina stochastic model a cikin wannan yanayin zai zama kamar haka:

• Mun ayyana sarari na na farko events. A shigen sukari shida tarnaƙi, don haka ba za su iya fada fita "daya", "biyu", "uku", "hudu", "biyar" da "shida".
• Da yiwuwar kowane sakamako ne daidai to 1/6, duk da haka da yawa da muka jefa kuri'a.
• Yanzu muna bukatar mu tantance sakamakon sha'awa. Wannan asarar da baki tare da lambar "shida" ko "daya".
• A karshe, ba za mu iya sanin yiwuwar wani taron ban sha'awa a gare mu. Shi ne 1/3. Mun takaita yiwuwar amfani ga mu, mu biyu na farko events: 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3.

A ra'ayi da kuma sakamakon

Stochastic tallan kayan kawa da aka yi amfani da sau da yawa a cikin giya da cãca. Amma shi ne ba makawa a tattalin arziki kiyasin kamar yadda suka ba da damar zurfi fiye da deterministic, su fahimci halin da ake ciki. Stochastic model a tattalin arziki sukan yi amfani da lokacin da yin zuba jari yanke shawara. Su ba ka damar yin zato game da riba na zuba jari a wasu kadarori ko kungiyoyin.

Tallan kayan kawa da ke sa kudi shiryawa mafi tasiri. Tare da taimakon masu zuba jari da kuma yan kasuwa don inganta rarraba ta dukiya. Amfani stochastic tallan kayan kawa ko da yaushe yana da wani amfani a cikin dogon gudu. A wasu masana'antu, da ƙi ko rashin amfani da shi zai iya har ma da kai wa fatarar da sha'anin. Wannan shi ne saboda cewa a hakikanin rai muhimmanci sabon zabin bayyana kowace rana, kuma lalle idan an ba ɗauke shi zuwa lissafi, shi zai iya zama m.