The kudin farashin a Amurka shale mai a shekarar 2014

Duniya ta kafofin watsa labarai a cika ta da hankali ga jama'a, ta bayyana cewa "shale juyin juya halin" ya faru a Amurka. Bisa ga abin da facts wadannan kalamai na iya zama dacewa? Akwai, musamman, da ra'ayin cewa kudin Amurka shale mai samar a 2014 ki sosai cewa American masana'antu domin hakar na "black zinariya", bisa manufa, ba ya kula da abin da a halin yanzu duniya farashin ga wannan samfurin. ko ya halalta? Mene ne abubuwan da shafi kudin shale man da kamfanonin Amirka?

Mene ne shale mai

Da farko, a kananan msar tambayar digression ga batun kwayoyin halitta. Mene ne shale mai? The kudin farashin da samfurin za mu sanin ko?

Gaskiyar cewa akwai zahiri iri biyu mai samuwa a cikin Rasha harshen a kan mutum a cikin titi matakin na kowa sunan - "Slate". Farko - wannan shi ne wani samfurin cewa, kazalika da daya da aka samar a cikin gargajiya hanya, yana kunshe ne a cikin wata na musamman Layer na Duniya ta jinsunan. Suna da ake kira "slates". Amma akwai wani samfurin. A karkashin dace irin man kuma za a iya gane yadda wannan slates, kuma aka kira "flammable". Su ne, a gaskiya, ya ƙunshi wani samfurin sosai kama da kaddarorin to man - shale man fetur. Kuma shi ma da wasu fasahohin da aka samu kuma ya hõre su aiki.

Saboda haka, Kalmar "shale man" za a iya fassara a cikin hanyoyi uku. wato:

- kamar yadda more ta a maimaikon "shale mai".

- mafi kusa analogue na gargajiya irin na mai, amma yana faruwa a wani daban-daban irin filayen.

- cirewa daga shale guduro.

A matsayin samfur, a kan wanda man fetur za a iya kerarre, amfani, ta haka ne, na biyu da na uku. Kafin nazari akai da kudin shale mai samar, bari mu lura da cewa da dama daga masana yana da ra'ayin cewa halin kaka hade tare da samun kowane daga cikin biyu da muka ambata kayayyakin iya bambanta ƙwarai. Yawancin lokaci, man samu daga man fetur shale, mafi tsada.

Inda ya ta'allaka shale mai?

Idan akai la'akari da abubuwan da ya shafi kudin shale mai, za mu koyi da ƙayyadaddu na adibas, a kan abin da ya dace aiki. Bisa ga rahotannin da dama hikimar tantance hukumomin, Amurka - da shugaban duniya a reserves na albarkatun, a tambaya. Babban filayen man fetur, da suka shafi shale category, karya da Amirkawa a Jihar Texas, a cikin yankuna na yammacin kasar da kuma arewa maso gabashin kasar. Har ila yau gagarumin reserves a cikin abin da ake kira "mai Sands", wanda suna located in Canada.

Akwai gagarumin adibas na "shale" da kuma a sauran kasashe a duniya, ciki har da a Rasha, kazalika da} asashen da ake alama gani ba, da yau makamashi iko - Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine. Ƙimar na yuwuwar murmurewa man fetur daga shale ne sosai m tsakanin masana. Sun fi mayar saboda gaskiyar cewa Figures cewa ba da damar for high quality-nazari, ba ko da yaushe m, kintace daga daban-daban line hukumomin, nuna, musamman, da adadin reserves a cikin filin, yana iya zama m ko akai-akai bita.

kudin Manuniya

Don gano abin da zai iya zama da kudin da aka kiyasta shale mai a Amurka, za mu juya ga wata yawan gwani kafofin. Wallafa bayanai a kan dacewa da karatu gudanar a shekaru daban-daban, ya bamu sosai gauraye data. Me ya sa? Shin gaskiya ne cewa kudin Amurka shale mai samar da shi ne kai tsaye dogara a kan subtype wannan samfurin (sama, mun gano biyu main)? Bisa ga bayanin da a cikin yawan kafofin, shi ne.

A shekarar 2012, mujallar Time ta buga da wadannan bayanai. Su ne, duk da haka, shafi na duniya trends. Duk da haka, wani ra'ayin abin da zai yi da kudin na shale mai a Amurka, wannan bayanai zai iya ba mu.

Kamar yadda gwani kimomi, a kan tushen da Time magazine buga Figures, samar da 1 ganga da man fetur daga man fetur shale a 2012 amounted zuwa game da $ 100. Bi da bi, da index ga mai cewa ta'allaka tsakanin yadudduka ba, ba balle a kasa, da kuma kasa da rabin - 50 daloli. Saboda haka, bayyana ta da mu a farkon labarin da ra'ayin cewa kudin na shale mai a Amurka da wasu ƙasashe dogara a kan takamaiman subtype na samfurin da aka tabbatar, idan muka dauki data for shekara ta 2012.

Mai a Amurka da kuma duniya

Idan muka kwatanta da alama kudi ga wannan shekara zuwa ga waɗanda suke yin tunãni cewa halin kaka na samar da irin wannan ma'adanai a Rasha, bambanci, ko a yanayin saukan wani mai rahusa samfurin zai zama a bayyane yake. "Classical" man cirewa a Rasha Kudinsa $ 15. Kuma a Saudi Arabia, ta hanyar, da kuma cewa shi ne mai rahusa - game 8. Duk da haka, a kan dukkan wadannan mutane da kuma masana 'ra'ayoyin diverge. Saboda haka, shi ne kawai m jagororin.

Mene ne mafi kwanan nan data, domin yanzu shekara? Karuwan ko mataimakin versa, ya rage da kudin da aka kiyasta samar a Amurka shale mai? 2014 - shekara na fall a duniya farashin "black zinariya". Shin, akwai wani dangantaka tsakanin taki na shale man fetur da kuma wannan kasuwar Trend?

A ra'ayin masana a kan wannan batu ne mai wuce yarda daban-daban. Da farko, a sosai daban-daban hanya domin kirgawa kudin. Criterion da cewa yana sa mafi girma da muhawara - hakar haraji.

Tare da ko ba tare da haraji?

Wasu masana tattalin arziki count da kudin man fetur na shale a Amurka, ya mayar da hankali ne a kan gaskiyar cewa ta samar da shi ne batun m haraji. Duk da haka, game da irin wannan samfurin samar da gargajiya hanya, wajibi ne a biya kudade duk. Amfanin ne daidai dangane da shale man fetur. A Rasha, misali, kazalika da a sauran kasashe, aikawa da "black zinariya", m ga sama fee.

Idan US da wasu ƙasashe Manuniya na haraji kasance m, sa'an nan, har idan muka dauki ga Figures, a 2012, bisa ga masana, da American mai zai sami wani sosai sha'awar ta halin kaka. Yanzu da samfurin allo tas daga Amurka, saboda haraji amfanin iya gaske zama, manazarta ce, kudin kusa da $ 50 ko kasa.

Bi da bi, akwai wani ra'ayi cewa da ya dace da irin zargin da Amurka taskar - mai rarrabẽwa wadda ba gagarumin cikin sharuddan kirgawa a kan man fetur halin kaka, kamar yadda babu zunubi samfurin samar a cikin US, yafi maida hankali a kan kasuwannin gida. Kuma saboda American biyan haraji da kansu "da damar" kansu cheap fetur.

A Trend don rage kudin?

Daga cikin masana ne taƙaitaccen labari cewa a tsawon shekaru a Amurka da kudin shale mai da dama. Dalili na shaida - inganta samar Sannan ina. A ra'ayin masana a kan wannan batu ne kuma rarraba. Akwai kimomi bisa ga abin da ganga na shale man yanzu costing Amirkawa game da $ 48 - da kuma yana da gaske m fiye da duniya talakawan, manazarta rubuta a shekarar 2012. Amma gyara domin kumbura - bisa manufa, shi attests da akan rage kudin samar. Sai dai in, ba shakka, yarda da cewa adadi ga Amurka a shekarar 2012 shi ne guda a matsayin talakawan a duniya (bayan duk, da Amirkawa - da undisputed shugaban na duniya kasuwar). Sa'an nan, idan mun yi la'akari da man cirewa daga subsoil, kuma ba daga shale da su aiki.

riba na samar da farashin man fetur

Yadda yi da kudin shale mai a Amurka, wasu kasashe da kuma duniya farashin "black zinariya"? A ra'ayin masana, kuma wannan lokaci ne sosai jũna. Amma yana da muhimmanci nazarin su su nemi hanya a cikin abubuwan da shafi kudin shale man fetur. 2014 ma sosai shubuha cikin sharuddan farashin mai. Yanzu sun ragu sosai. Will girma - kawai babu wanda zai iya ce.

Manazarta OPEC, musamman, imani da cewa idan duniya farashin man na dogon lokaci zai zauna a kasa 90 daloli a kowace ganga, sa'an nan da aiki domin rabin Amurka "shale" hukumomi za su zama marasa amfani baki ɗaya. Bi da bi, da masana IHS yi imani da cewa kasuwanci zai ci gaba da samar da man fetur expediency, ko da idan duniya farashin fada zuwa 57 daloli a kowace ganga. Wasu jayayya a cikin kimantawa da tayi, ta kasa da kasa Energy Agency. A cewar masana na wannan tsarin, da hakar shale mai a Amurka zai zama quite m idan duniya farashin ba fada a kasa $ 80 kowace ganga. Manazarta a Citigroup, bi da bi, imani da cewa don kula da "Slate" masana'antu a Amurka zai zama isa kudi na 75 daloli.

Akwai wani ban sha'awa version: idan duniya man farashin zai koma baya, da Amurka da hukumomi, da samar da "black zinariya" so ko ta wani hanya, tilasta hažaka da fasaha tushe domin yanke halin kaka. Masana suke kusa da wannan ra'ayi yi imani da cewa "shale man" masana'antu na da wani babban m a wannan batun. Data kasance fasahar, sun yi ĩmãni, a da yawa na gwaji da a da dama al'amurran da yadda ya dace ne na baya har zuwa ga waɗanda suke cewa suna amfani da man fetur a cikin gargajiya hanya. A tsawon lokaci, manazarta ce, Amirkawa za su kara Sannan ina. Saboda wannan kudin shale mai a Amurka iya shafi. A cewar Accenture dillancin kima, da dacewa da halin kaka iya fada da 40%.

Ganga kamata girma

Duk da haka dai, daga cikin masana shi ne na kowa ra'ayi: ko da idan US shale mai samar da kudin ne game da $ 50, da samar da zai zauna, ta wata hanya, m ga kamfanonin {asar Amirka. Amma a karkashin wani yanayin - yayin da farashin man a halin yanzu ga farkon lokacin rani a 2014 - game da $ 110 kowace ganga. Kawai sai suka ba zai yi tunani game da yadda za a rage kudin da shale man fetur. $ 80, duk da haka, - yanzu farashin "black zinariya". Wannan shi ne, idan daya bãyukansu wannan ra'ayin, kamfanonin asar Amirka ne yanzu a kan gab da riba. Game da taro bankruptcies na kamfanonin tukuna kuna hukunta da bango bayanai a kafofin watsa labarai, shi har yanzu ba.

kudin dalilai

Yana kome, shale man da aka samar a karkashin abin da yanayi? The kudin farashin abin da dalilai m dangane da abun ciki na samar da matakai a cikin hakar "black zinariya"?

Daga cikin gagarumin cikin sharuddan halin kaka na yanayi - da rai daga cikin rijiyoyin. Gaskiyar cewa mai shale aka mined da wani mabanbanta fasahar a kwatanta da ci gaban na gargajiya adibas. Yawancin lokaci, aiki kashe na daya da yake sau da yawa sauri. Kuma saboda kayan aiki da aka shigar domin samar da shale mai, nan da nan bayan da ci gaban gida hanya dole ne ko dai rubuta kashe saboda sa, ko don matsawa ga wasu abubuwa. Wannan, ba shakka, zai iya a tare da babba halin kaka.

Wani factor - zurfin man shale. Kazalika da samun sabo ruwa kusa da nan, wanda ke tsunduma a cikin hakar "black zinariya" tare da yin amfani da fasahar dace. Dangane da zurfin da hanya ta halin kaka na iya bambanta muhimmanci.

A gaba gagarumin factor - adequacy kimantawa darajar shale reserves. Yana iya zama cewa zuba jari a gwada wa na kaffa kintace ba su da lokacin da za a biya kashe a cikin ra'ayi na gaskiya cewa mai kawai ƙare a wani takamaiman filin. Akwai wani ban sha'awa m - a Los Angeles Times ta fito da littafin, wanda ya ce daya daga cikin filayen man fetur a California ta gaba-neman kalamai da kuma ainihin tsaga 25 sau.

Wani factor - gaban a cikin unguwa da irin wannan adibas na shale gas adibas. Gaskiyar cewa, a cewar wasu masana, da tsarin zai iya shafar riba, kawai idan za a samar da iri na man fetur.

Yiwuwa ga "shale juyin juya halin"

Duk da haka, ko da kuwa abin da lambobin daidai da kudin man fetur na shale a Amurka, 2013 da kuma 2014 a nuna wani runaway Amirkawa hakar ma'adanai da madadin kafofin.

Bisa ga hasashen da daban-daban masana da kuma hukumomi, da Manuniya za kawai girma a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Alal misali, Energy Information Administration (daya daga cikin ofisoshin reshe a cikin USA) ya yi imanin cewa, a shekarar 2019, da samar da shale mai a Amurka zai isa 9.5 ganga miliyan a rana (yanzu - game da miliyan 3).

Daga cikin abubuwan da zai iya hana hukumomi daga Amurka wajen samar da - riga lura da mu a kan Trend ne gwada da kananan rabo daga madadin adibas. Idan saba ajiya za a iya ci gaba har shekaru da yawa, misali kudi ga shale - 3-5 shekaru. A wannan lokaci, da mai a rijiyar hanya iya tsautsayi da 90% ko fiye.

Kintace ko American masana kansu game da inganta harkokin ci gaban "shale" ne sosai daban-daban. A sauki misali. Wannan ne Energy Information Administration kintace cewa daya daga cikin mafi girma a Amurka adibas - Bakken - 2040 samar da shale mai zai kasance game da 1 ganga miliyan a rana. A daidai wannan lokaci, bisa ga kima reshe institute Post Carbon, nuna alama ga Bakken ba fiye da 73 da dubu. Ganga. Bambanci a cikin kintace - fiye da tenfold. Akwai sabani tsakanin kimomi da biyu Tsarin da kuma game da wasu reserves na shale man fetur a California. Af, a wasu lokuta, da Energy Information Administration muhimmanci raya ta kintace ga filayen man fetur. A daya hali, hakkin ya rage by 96%. Duk da haka, kamar yadda muka gani da wasu masana, masu zuba jari, da yin wani yanke shawara game da yadda za a zuba jari a cikin masana'antun, shi za a iya shiryar da shi zuwa na farko forecast.

Duk da haka, masana tura ba tsalle zuwa karshe kuma kintace. Wajibi ne a lura da yadda za su ci gaba mafi kyau fasahar don tabbatar da wani ya fi dacewa da kuma, mafi muhimmanci, a mafi tsabtace muhalli da samar da samfurin. A mafi muhimmanci factor a ci gaba daga American masana'antu a ci gaban madadin adibas na "black zinariya" so ma duniya farashin man.